If you are fresh or semi-professional arbitrage player you may wonder whether you should or not placing arbitrage bets involving tennis moneyline events (who will win a game).

This is reasonable concern, as bookmakers have different tennis rules and as a consequence in some cases you can lose one bet, while the second is voided ( happily it can also goes the other way round) thus facing huge loss (of money and motivation).

Now we theory words.

Some bookmakers honour tennis match result only if both players will finish it (no player retirement is allowed). Otherwise all bets are considered void and your stake is refunded.

There is another group of bookies who will honour your bets if at least 1 set is finished. The guy who retires afterwards is declared loser and all bets on him are lost. The other player is declared winner and all bets on him are won. If retirement takes place during 1 set again all bets are voided.

There is also third group of bookmakers who will honour match result, once it started. It means, that player, who retires will be considered loser and the other one – winner.

I will give you today two advices how to maximize your profit while placing surebets on tennis moneyline events. One will be basic for new arbers and second will be designed for professionals.

Advice 1 – For beginners and semi-professionals

Provided you follow this simple rule you are totally on the safe side. You can place your bets and rest assured both of them will be settled identically in both bookmakers and you will gain your arbitrage money.

You might ask yourselfs how to be certain that arbitrage is safe and rules between bookmakers of interest are identical. Well that is why Surebet Monitor Team prepared for you this comprehensive table showing tennis moneyline settlement rules for particular bookmakers.

Above all bare in mind, that you do not need to remember it – once you use Surebet Monitor for finding arbitrage opportunities you get detailed information about potential discrepancy in tennis rules for each listed tennis event. Therefore you can every time decide whether to place particular bet or let it go.

The post Lesson 17 – Arbitrage on tennis – mixed rules – how to play safe? appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Sports Arbitrage Software, Alert Service, Arbitrage Betting.

Advice 2 – For professionals

You need to estimate risk for player retirement and decide whether listed arbitrage is valuable or not. Lets consider two situations to show you how it works in practice:

Situation 1

You have spotted arbitrage between Bwin and Pinnacle Sports:

This is solid 1,4% surebet, however there are different settlement rules between Pinnacle Sports and Bwin.

Bwin needs just one ball to be played (match to start) to treat all bets valid, whereas Pinnacle Sports needs one entire set to be played for the bets to be sustained. What does it mean for us in this case?

Lets say we have placed 5 000 EUR bet on Federer in Pinnacle and 423 EUR bet on Kubot in Bwin.

As you can see this is very valuable bet. Most likely we will win 77 EUR, which is decent. It might happen that we lose 423 EUR, but equally probable is that we win 5077 EUR (lets assume that chances for Kubot’s retirement in first set are identical to chances that Federer will retire in first set).

So after such analysis you absolutely should place such bet!

Situation 2

You have spotted arbitrage between Bwin and Tobet:

This is again solid 1,4% surebet, however there are different settlement rules between Tobet and Bwin.

Bwin needs just one ball to be played (or in other words match must start) to treat all bets valid, whereas Tobet needs entire match to be played for the bets to be sustained (whichever player retirement means cancellation of all bets). What does it mean to us in this particular case?

Lets say we have placed 5 000 EUR bet on Federer in Bwin and 423 EUR bet on Kubot in Tobet.

As you can see this is very risky bet. Most likely we will win 77 EUR, which is again decent. It might happen that we win 500 EUR, but unfortunately equally probable is that we lose 5000 EUR (lets assume that chances for Kubot’s retirement are identical to chances that Federer will retire).

So after this brief analysis you rather should not place such bet!

And again remember this – you do not need to waste precious arber’s time and analyse each case yourself. Surebet Monitor will do it for you.

The post Lesson 17 – Arbitrage on tennis – mixed rules – is it worth playing? appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Sports Arbitrage Software, Alert Service, Arbitrage Betting.

These are quite common questions asked by many bettors who consider to start earning by sports arbitrage.

There is no minimal amount of money you need to have to start playing. It is even advisable to start with very low budget in order to meet all of the arbing difficulties and gain invaluable experience, which will be essential in the future, when you decide to start “Real play”.

Depending on an amount of time you spend arbing, your budget and your personal abilities (See Lesson 10 – Arbitrage betting players profile article) you can estimate arbitrage earnings at 15-30% level of your budget per month.

We recommend to start with the budget of 10 000 EUR and think that minimal serious playable amount is 2 500 EUR.

If you have less than that, you still may try to start arbing, however you will experience many additional difficulties:

• Your low liquidity will result in “dead” days – when you will have all your funds stored at one single bookmaker. This will stop you from placing surebets – you will need to spend many hours or even days at withdrawing funds to skrill, and depositing them again somewhere else
• Your earnings will be relatively small which will affect and decrease your motivation
• Relatively high percentage of your earnings will be consumed by cost of arbitrage service subscription – you might decide to use free services, but they are not that accurate and their quality is lower, thus decreasing your potential earnings
• Making mistakes will be deadly costly – you can lose entire budget if you make single mistake

In case of any additional questions regarding this subject contact us.

The post Lesson 18 – How much money do I need to play surebets? How much can I earn on sports arbitrage? appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Sports Arbitrage Software, Alert Service, Arbitrage Betting.

If you are playing arbitrage bets or sharpbets you might (sooner or later) end up with your account limited (your maximum allowed stakes will be severly reduced). There are, however few places, where you will not get limited like top arbitrage bookmaker Pinnacle Sports or leading betting exchange Betfair, but they are discussed somewhere else.

Once you have suspicions that your account might be limited at any bookmaker like Bwin, Unibet, Expekt or others after you have withdrawn bigger amount of funds from it you should do as follows:

1) Make medium-sized deposit and try to play arbitrage bet/sharpbet. If it will be accepted this means that your account is not limited and you can procced with depositing entire amount you wanted to upload at your account at bookmaker.

2) If your bet will not be accepted and you will see it reduced to silly amount this would mean that you have your account limited. While you have deposited just medium-sized amount it will not be very difficult to make required turnover and withdraw cash.

3) It might happen that you forget about this approach and deposit entire amount just before finding out, that your account is already limited. In this case it would be best to contact customer support and state like below:

Dear Customer Support,
I have just deposited xxxx EUR and noticed that my betting limits are reduced. In these circmustances I would like to kindly ask you to allow me to withdraw my funds right now without any fee, once I have not been informed about the limits. With these stakes I cannot really play, that is why I decided to move somewhere else. You might also think of restoring my limits, so that I will not withdraw my funds.

They will, of course, not increase your limits, however at least they will allow you to withdraw cash without struggling with turnover at low stakes.

The post My account at bookmaker is limited. How to withdraw cash? appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Sports Arbitrage Software, Alert Service, Arbitrage Betting.

Usually, the posts you read here help you hone your surebetting skills or point out where there’s more money to be made.

We all like making money, and we all know that in a situation where you can either lose or gain nothing, not losing is winning.

It is no secret that it’s profitable to, as one smart person put it, “have a lot of trustful friends”. What this means, I leave to your imagination. As it sometimes happens, we have a friend who has made a habit of betting big on our PC.

As we are very good friends, we don’t want our friend to get limited, do we? But sometimes, we make it very easy for the bookie to pin him down. How so?

There are a couple technical means which help websites identify us. And I’m not talking about login and password, we provide these information volunatrily. Some of these you should be familiar with already, if not, it is in your best interest to get to know the bugs

1. Cookies

And I’m not talking about the delicious constructs of carbohydrates and fats that we love so much, this is not a dietary site. I’m talking about browser cookies – constructs of bits, which can store information on our machines and serve it right back to the mother site as we visit it again.

Sometimes it’s good to engage our in-house Cookie Monster and simply clear all the cookies. Preferably before our friend visits us

If you are too attached to all the autologins you have, just use another browser for betting. Like Firefox for everyday use? Say hi to Chrome. And vice versa.

I’m confident that most of you know about cookies. But web is full of links. Some of the links happen to be autoloading, and by this autoloading they set cookies, seemingly unrelated to the site you have just opened.

Keep this in mind and clear ALL the cookies, not only the ones that seem related to what bookie you want to hide from. This might be save your accounts from limits.

2. Supercookies

Now, this is a relatively recent one. As most of the users have caught up with cookies, this thing is currently one of the biggest threats to anonymity of your browser.

We’re talking some of the most pesky and intrusive things around. They really don’t do anything different than your normal non-tasty cookie, but the unawareness of them is what makes the dangerous.

The most obvious ones are the flash cookies, or LSOs.

Let this speak for itself:

Flash Player – Website Storage Settings Panel

Well, it makes little sense to enumerate all possible client-side trackers. This is more of academic interest and can be googled within a few minutes.

On how to get rid of such supercookies, please follow this guide:

It is possible to kill the evercookie?
 

3. Browser Fingerprints

When I’ve first heard about it, I thought that “1985″ has arrived. This is an ingenious technique only a select few are aware of. Basically, your browser sends huge
catalogs of information within it’s User-Agent fields, and Flash will even make available the lists of your plugins and fonts. Why is that dangerous?

The data is massive. The probability of some other person having exactly the same fingerprint is miniscule.

Also, minor fingerprint changes can be ignored by fuzzy search algorithms. The general purpose ones do very well, and a well-motivated and skilled programmer can make a specialized one with hit rate of around 100%. Deadly.

For more information about this, feel free to refer to Panopticlick. Their material is spot on, and will likely surprise you.

How to combat this? Possibly disable Flash and JS, but remember that no data is also data. Also, unless the bookie you’re dealing with has an archaic website design (I’m thinking about you, Pinny), it might cause usage problems. Either way, disabling the sending of these information will reduce the fingerprinting accuracy.

4. A sensible solution

Yes, it is highly possible to remove all the trackers, cookies and even change your browser fingerprint. However, we have to ask the question whether it is feasible for a typical user. The answer will most likely be a resounding NO.

What is the Surebet Monitor Team’s recommended solution? Use a virtual machine. There’s plenty of information over the Internet on how to set up a VM, so I’m not gonna rehash it here.

Just keep a VM for every friend that visits you, have a dynamic IP and make good use of it (change it for each of them), and use a bit different software setup for the VMs (different versions of browsers, flash, no flash, JS on-JS off). Remember, the setup will take at most 15m for each VM once you get the hang of it, and will save thousands of euros in profit.

Make sure that the system is pretty clean on the VMs, this avoids additional fonts and plugins and will keep your browser fingerprint uninformative.

Before you go all out on the virtual machines, ensure your integration functions are off. We know that MS Virtual PC has it on by default, and you should check your VM software. This would be a terrible thing from the perspective of fingerprinting and has the record of getting people limited/blocked. Do your due dilligence.

It is also necessary to note that you don’t want your VMs to leave no identifiable trace. You actually want the opposite, just that every VM should leave a different one. This makes it very likely that each of your friends is betting from his own computer, which is precisely what we want the bookies to believe.

5. Some practical implications of fignerprinting

Let me give you some food for thought. Say that there exists a certain browser fingerprint which is highly correlated with arbers. If you were a recreational bookie’s risk manager worth his salt, you’d be preemptively limiting everybody using this fingerprint.

When would this be likely to happen? Probably when some developer hardcodes a useragent into a browserlike code. If you’ve been researching the arbitrage markets for some time, you must’ve come across a feature called “autosurf”.

It seems like a great thing. One click and you’re getting navigated to precisely the right bet on the bookie’s site, buying you precious seconds.

However, the most common implementation seems to be based on a highly fingerprintable browser engine, which makes its users susceptible to quick limiting.

This problem actually seems hard to tackle. However, hard doesn’t mean intractable, and in fact with a bit of quality thought it’s maybe not simple, but straightforward to devise an algorithm which takes care of it. It’s behavior will be vastly better than that of current implementations, which just ignore the issue, but it will still offer inferior performance to a well set-up VM, which creates a perfect illusion of a different computer for each person.

Our recommendation to both you and your friends is to place all the bets manually, through your favorite browser. Sure it takes a bit more of technique, but is safer. Additionally, with experience it actually makes it LESS LIKELY that you make an error when betting. After all, as the instruction manual for a certain car on the various drive stability and safety systems states “The aforementoined systems don’t prevent the laws of physics from acting on the vehicle”. Don’t be the dumb driver who thinks so, and remember that the thing that really matters is what is actually written on the bookie’s site, and not what your betting tools believe is written there. If you have some idea on what a real surebet looks like, it’s almost impossible to bet a wrong line that way, yet we’ve seen reports of people autobetting a wrong line and losing money that way. Count on your own eyes and skills.

6. Summary

Today I’ve highlighted the various privacy invasion techniques that can be used on the web, within and outside of the betting context.

Also presented were anonymizing techniques, among them the most effective and efficient of them all (short of operating a few different computers), namely the virtual machine. Also, I underlined the dangers associated with various autosurf solutions, ranging from the privacy/limiting concerns to the possibility of the automated system making a mistake.

The post How to safely place bets appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Sports Arbitrage Software, Alert Service, Arbitrage Betting.

Perhaps one of the most important and profitable abilities for an arber is to correctly differentiate between high percentage healthy arb and a palp error.

Exceling here brings huge profit in a long run (as one correctly chooses to play safe high percentage arbs and avoid obvious mistaken lines, which placed would be voided afterwards, thus resulting in a loss).

Here, as nowhere else it is your experience, that plays major role and is decisive whether you will succeed. This, however is gained in time and there are many of Us, including me that do not want to wait too long for things to happen.

That is why we – The Surebet Monitor Team – decided to share some hints that may help you to differentiate between palps and high percentage surebets.

If you are a beginner on the Field it is suggested that you do not play arbitrages of 3% or above. After reading this article you may though decide to play also the more profitable ones.

Lets go through multiple examples showing some high percentage arbs:

1. Arb or Palp 1 – 6,59% @ Over/Under/Under – Club Friendlies

Analysis

The game starts in few hours. Both 12Bet and 188Bet have similar line on over 2,75, so they are most likely right and there is no mistake of their side. Generally Asian bookies VERY seldom void bets. The question is whether Bwin’s line will be voided or not. The answer is NO.

First of all because under 3,5 line (1,55) creates just 2% healthy arbitrage with Betfair, so it is not “obviously mistaken” one. Secondly because more problematic under 2,5 line (2,35 Bwin) defines this under line as an underdog and this is consistent with under lay line at Betfair (2,22). Also defining 2,35 for under 2,5 is internally correct with 1,55 for under 3,5 (all “under” lines are overvalued).

Verdict: GO for 200 EUR

2. Arb or Palp 2 – 6,49% @ Asian Handicap/Match – Chinese Cup (Football)

Analysis

188Bet fires a high line on Yatai (2,07 – draw no bet – the slight underdog) and 2,75 for “to win a game” market. Contrary Bwin publishes 3,30 on Shenhua (the underdog) and 1,60 on X2 (draw or away). This is close call situation, however I would say it will not be voided and I suggest to play this arb. Why is that so? 188Bet is most likely right and it, as an Asian, well informed bookmaker, changed the line in favor of the away team, thus creating an arb. Bwin is a bit late and left with the old line. Slow reaction of Bwin is not a reason for voiding the bets afterwards. Also 188Bet’s 2,75 (1) and Bwin’s 1,60 (X2) result in just 1,15% arbitrage, that looks healthy.

Verdict: GO for 100 EUR

3. Arb or Palp 3 – 4,05% @ Match/Double Chance | 3,68% @ Match – Club Friendlies Game

Analysis

This is a very well defined market (just 15 minutes to kick-off) and an underdog is clear (the away team). Therefore there is no risk one can state it is obvious palp and this is clear arbitrage, that one can safely bet.

Verdict: GO for 100 EUR

4. Arb or Palp 4 – 4,37% @ Handicap Market – Champions League Qualifiers

Analysis

This is quite estabilished market (just few hours to start). If the strength difference of the Teams is very big, arbitrage opportunites are often present. This is the case here. There is a healthy 2,99% arbitrage between Pinnacle Sport and Marathon (AH +1,75) (AH -1,75), so this means that 2,78 at Marathon is correct. Also ~ 4.00 odds is normal odd for EH (X) markets and finally 2,51 of 12Bet for AH 1 (-2,5) is confirmed at BetDaq (2,49). With all odds correct and because it is a handicap market for the game with the clear underdog, this surebet is playable.

Verdict: GO for 100 EUR

5. Arb or Palp 5 – 4,60% @ Moneyline – Philippines Basketball

Analysis

First of all this is very well estabilished market (just 15 minutes till start of the game). Pinnacle Sports limit is quite high (as for that type of game) and odd (1,606) corresponds to 62% of chances for the home team, defining them as favorites. This is consistent with what other bookmakers think, publishing odds of 3,00 (or slightly below) on away teams, giving them around 30-33% chances. All in all there is no clear or obvious mistake, but a difference in estimation of Teams chances.

Verdict: GO for 50 EUR

6. Arb or Palp 6 – 14,78% (middle: 2,67%) @ Over/Under – Polish Cup Football Game

Analysis

Again there are just 3-4 hours till kick-off and we are offered 14,78% surebet (over 2,5 under 2,5) as well as 2,67% middle (over 2,5 at 2,20 in Tobet against under 3 at 1,925 in Bet365). This is very likely to be a palpable error at Tobet and if you place the over 2,5 bet at 2,20 it might well been voided. Why is that so? First of all the surebet is too high. This is however not a main reason for voiding (have seen similarly high surebets, that have not been voided). The problem is about defining an underdog here. Bet365 thinks that there will be many goals here (2,40 for under 2,5) and Tobet has opposite idea (2,20 for over 2,5). 2,40 corresponds to 41% chances for under and 59% chances for over, whereas 2,20 corresponds to 45% chances for over and 55% for under. This is 14% difference and, when the high commission for an event is added (6-9%) it makes around 20% difference in opinion.

Most likely this is than the palpable error.

7. Arb or Palp 7 – 4,95% @ Over/Under – Betfair (Betting Exchange) v. Marathon

Analysis

Two things to learn on this example. There is nothing to be afraid of in betting at Betfair. One might also take 3,93% using Bet365 or 3,54% with Pinnacle Sports. As for Marathon/Panbet – this bookmaker is renown of producing a lot of high-percentage arbitrages thanks to its very low marigin as well as slow odds update and not voiding such placed bets. Sadly, they also limit fast. All in all it is safe to play this arbitrage.

Verdict: GO for 6 EUR

Summary

As you can see there is some logic behind differentiating between palpable errors and correct arbitrage opportunities. If you would like to contribute to the thread and publish your very high surebet and/or palpable error you may wish to send a printscreen together with the brief analysis at support@surebetmonitor.com so it will be added and published, thus enriching the overall knowledge of the arbing community.

The post How to identify a palp? (palpable error) appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Sports Arbitrage Software, Alert Service, Arbitrage Betting.

The gambling market is nowadays strongly divided into two completely separate group of services/sportsbooks – the sharp ones and the soft ones.

Below you will find some major characteristics of the services belonging to the particular group as well as examples of the sportsbooks from each group.

1. Sharp bookmakers

• Automatic odds movements
• Convergent odds movements between sharp bookmakers
• Rapid odds movements in response to market changes (in seconds)
• Profit based on high turnover and low marigin
• Bettors accounts are not limited
• Difficult to extract value from these bookmakers
• Rapid expansion on the Asian/European markets

Examples:

• Pinnacle Sports
  
• SBOBet
• 188Bet
• 12Bet

most of the other asian bookmakers.

2. Soft bookmakers

• Manual odds movement (trader changes odds)
• Odds might substantially differ between bookmakers belonging to this group, even creating
• Frequent arbitrages
• Slow odds correction in response to market changes (in minutes)
• Profit based on recreational players, playing accumulators and gamblers
• Bettors accounts are limited, if player is an arber or professional
• Easy to extract value from these bookmakers
• Target gamblers but suffers from extended expansion of asian bookmakers

Examples:

• Bwin/Gamebookers
• Betsafe
• Expekt
• Tobet/Nordicbet
• Betsson
• Unibet

As mentioned above nowadays we observe ongoing growth of asian bookmakers and their expansion on european market. Will their business model and offer bring them ultimate success over old, estabilished european marks like Bwin, William Hill or Ladbrokes? Will the latter services change their policy and start to resemble asians policy? Time will tell.

The post Sharp bookmakers and soft bookmakers – definition, difference and perspectives appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Sports Arbitrage Software, Alert Service, Arbitrage Betting.

Dear Arbers!

Not so long ago we wrote about certain technical systems which make tracking possible and how to deal with them.

Everything written there stands, every single word. The reason for this post is more to actually scare you a bit and MOTIVATE you to actually move your ass and set up a VM, which I’m sure almost nobody did.

Recently there’s been a thread on one of the arbitrage forums by a representative of one of the smaller bookmakers (this description is vague on purpose, so as not to easily identify the person who had been very honest), in which they revealed that a database of bettors exists, ran by a third-party, later identified to be a payment processor.

This database helps reveal undesirable players. At this point pure disgust should be appearing on your face, as this is exactly what is sounds like. Readers familiar with the history of advantage gambling should be aware of the Griffin Book (if not, look it up on Wikipedia). We’re dealing with a similiar situation, except on a way larger scale, using much more potent technology. Namely, the representative claimed that many bookmakers have access to a INTERBOOK database which contains blacklisted players.

There is, in our opinion only one situation in which blacklisting players in this way might be morally acceptable. That is the credit card fraud – deposit money to a bookmaker using a CC, place a big bet, withdraw in case of a win and start a stolen card charge dispute in case of a loss. There is no sensible defense against this for a bookmaker.

However, as was the case with the Griffin Book, and most other surveillance lists, they tend to expand uncontrollably from the most serious offenders to even the marginal ones. And we can say, with a probability close to certainty, that this modern third-party list already includes bonus abusers and arbers.

This is in line with a lot of anecdotal evidence of how people who get limited with one bookie quickly get limited with most of them.

While we have no precise information on what identifiying information the lists contain, our sources indicate that country, IP and browser fingerprint data are used to uniquely identify a machine. Betting a lot of money on that names and contact information from bookmaker records are included will be a value bet at almost any odds.

Morality and legality of such a scheme is defintely disputable, but the possibility of getting to court with this and proving that the bookies are violating their (or their regulator’s) privacy policy is effectively nil. I’m not an ethicist nor a theologist so I’ll leave the problem of whether that is fair to the players. Even if it’s not, nothing can be done to change it.

Risks are simple and I have broached the matter in the previous article, however let me recapitulate and point out a few new risks that come with the new understanding of their networked structure.

• The limits at most soft bookies come more or less (within about one month) synchronously. There is no sensible counterstrategy to this, however in order to maximize profit, deposit to multiple bookies at once and extract as much value (play as many surebets) as possible before the limits come. This will be effective, as one of our sources claims that low latency (daily or faster) reports are very expensive, and most providers will choose weekly or event monthly accesses.

• The same applies to bonus extraction, as once you are in such a database, the limits will come fast and you might have issues with the turnover conditions. If bankroll allows, extract all bonuses at the same time.

The two above risk are about making less money than would be possible, and are hence important, but not game breaking. The things get interesting in the following case:

• If for any reason two or more people use the same computer to place bets (big – small bettors will likely be ignored due to low damage done),
  there exists an array of option, with the worst ones involving the confiscation of both the winnings and deposits. Such cases
  can be found on SBR and will send your blood pressure to extreme levels.

  That sounds and truly is terrible. What can one do? Protect yourself. Remember that condoms only reduce the risk of unwanted pregnancy and STDs, and only abstinence is a certain protective measure.

While the above line can seem a bit off topic for this post, substitute condoms with VMs, pregnancy and STDs with identification, limits and confiscations, and you are on a good way to understanding the countermeasures.

The right way is to use highly isolated, basic and frequent setup VMs on a variable IP connection. One per person using the computer. This will make it EXTREMELY hard for any fingerprinting algorithms to find and get you. This is like the hymen reconstruction surgery for a computer – the bookmakers will see you as a virgin arber and you will get limited like a virgin arber – slower.

As I’ve said before, setting up a VM is a relatively simple task which will can save your arbing life and bankroll. If the public response in terms of views and discussion indicates a strong need for a precise, step-by-step guide to setting up a secure, anonymizing virtual machine, such an article will be written.

RECAP:

• Bookmakers have an access to an interbookie database containing undesirable players (fraudsters, but also arbers and sharps)

• One can reduce its impact on arbing by arbing all bookies simultaneously (i.e. Bwin, Unibet, Betsson and Betsafe at the same time, not one after another)

• If there are multiple people using your computer, you HAVE to use VMs to avoid limits and much more dire situations

• If you want to know how to set up a VM for arbing, make this article popular

The post Player blacklists – why do the bookmaker limits come in pairs? appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Sports Arbitrage Software, Alert Service, Arbitrage Betting.

Dear Arbers!

Today I’m gonna show you how to set up a VM suitable for arbing in a few simple steps. This particular solution is likely, and we’re gonna see how, based on panopticlick, to improve the fingerprint of your machine.

With a VM you will:

• Avoid identification of different people playing on the same PC by locally stored objects of any kind, without having to wonder about what they might be
• Reduce fingeprintability

With respect to the second point, the machine I’m working on presently is an extremely easy target for fingerprinting. On Panopticlick, it is unique among 2.4 million machines. It’s that bad.

Within this article we’re going to make it hard to fingerprint. The VM software we’re gonna be using is the VMware Workstation 9.0, which is extremely functional and in fact easy to use.

What will be needed:

• A decent machine which can handle a VM running in it (4 GB RAM should be sufficient for most cases)
• VMware Workstation 9.0 (getting this is not hard with a little creativitiy)
• A Windows boot CD (can be in image form, a physical disk will work aswell)
• Some time
• An open mind and basic reading comprehension skills

Before some *nix fanboys start getting offended, the goal here is to appear as a normal player. Non Windows OSes are rare and hence will provide easy fingerprintability. Of course, the machine on which the VMs run can be any system supported by VMware.

So, let’s get it on!

Step 1. Install the VMware workstation

This is simple. Start the installer, and click next next next. When asked for a cdkey, provide yours.

Step 2. Set up a virtual machine

Launch the VMware workstation software.

Click on the “Create a New Virtual Machine” icon.

Click typical.

Point the software to either a Windows CD drive (red), or an image (blue).

Now, depending on your choice of the OS, you will either be prompted with an Easy Install window, which you fill in accordingly, or you will have to go thru the steps of installing a Windows OS. How to do it is outside the scope of this article in particular, but if you’ve ever installed an XP, Vista or W7, you’re good to go. If not, getting a hang on this is extremely easy. I even link to some tutorials.

XP (ignore the steps about booting, VMware does this for you):
How to Install Windows XP

Win7:
How to install Windows 7 – Full tutorial

Name the virtual machine after your friend, whether by a nickname or a full legal name (this is important).

Install Windows, whether manually or by the quick install.

Step 3. Use the virtual machine

Once the OS has been set up, you’re almost good to go. Install your favourite web browser, install Flash and Java if your bookies require it. The last part will likely take care of itself automatically.

Now you can theoretically do whatever you want on the VM, as you would on a normal PC. However, with regards to arbing and letting your friends bet from it, there are good reasons for doing it my way.

First of all, VMs prevent the bookies from tracking multiple people using the same computer to the machine by means of LOCAL STORAGE (cookies, supercookies, fingerprinting).

They don’t prevent tracking by IP or some experimental measures such as typing patterns, but the latter have not been adopted widely enough so as to force a countermeasure.

If they do get adopted in this industry, we’ll be coming up with a program to distort your typing patterns.

You gotta be mindful of the IP issues, and there are two ways to handle this. One is simple IP resets on dynamic-IP connection when a friend comes over, and this is a thing you NEED to remember. The other one, a private elite proxy server for each friend is also an option which I’ll be describing on this blog.

Once this is handled, however, you’re in a pretty comfortable situation. There are a few simple rules which will prevent most things bad from happening:

• One friend, one virtual machine (this is the single most important thing)
• Only keep browser things on the virtual machine (this means no MS Office, no Surebet Monitors, nothing but your favourite browser, Java and Flash). Access to these facilities should be done by your main machine
• The only use for the VM is for your friends to place bets from it. Don’t browse other sites to avoid tracking by reckless logins or access patterns

If these rules are adhered to religiously, your friend will be perceived as playing from his own, distinct computer. The typical setup for arbing is to use the real machine for Surebet Monitor and sharps, and the virtual one for soft bookies. Such an arrangement works extremely well with a dual-monitor setup, which we’ll be discussing soon.

Precautions:

• Remain aware of the IPs. This is the easiest way to fuck up a great VM setup
• Name the VMs so that it’s obvious which VM belongs to which friend
• Never let one friend log in to his account from other friend’s VM. This is the second easiest way to fuck up a great VM setup
• One should not use this configuration when in altered state of consciousness (drunk, high, very tired). This is the easiest way not to follow the above precautions. It is also ill-advised to arb in such a state
• Let me repeat. Always use the system when completely clear-minded AND sober. Generally substance limits on driving a car are proper substance limits for arbing, though I advocate complete sobriety in this regard
• To scare you into actually following what I preach, failure to obey the above instruction can (and most likely will) result in a confiscation dispute in which you and your friends have absolutely zero leverage and can say goodbye to all the money. Take a look at these:
  http://www.sportsbookreview.com/search/?q=BetAtHome
  http://www.sportsbookreview.com/search/?q=BetClic

Summary:

• Install VMware workstation
• Set up your virtual machine
• Use the machine while making sure to follow the safety instructions above

The post How to set up a Virtual Machine for safe arbing appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Sports Arbitrage Software, Alert Service, Arbitrage Betting.

As you are all aware I am sure, mixed sport rules are the most dangerous in playing arbitrages on the tennis events. One should however also note, that in the Ice hockey there are also very often differences in settlement rules.

Whereas one group of bookmakers settle asian handicaps (AH) and over/under (OU) markets after REGULAR TIME (without overtime, penalties) the other ones will count in the Overtime and subsequent penalties, for the settlement purposes.

Here is the very brief tip the Surebet Monitor Team gives to you what to actually do to avoid missettlements and avoid the risk, no matter what the rules are between the services you use.

If the rules are different (Regular Time vs Overtime Included)

You are allowed to play:

You are not allowed to play:

Explanation = Why is that so?

The fact is that for the markets listed as the ones that you CAN play, there is no possible outcome of the ice hockey match that will result in losing of funds.

Example

Let us say that you bet on under 5,5 (Overtime included) and over 5,5 (Regular time only) goals in a hockey game.

Situation 1: The game will end 3:2 after regular time – you will basically win the under 5,5 bet.

Situation 2: The game will end 3:3 and go into the Overtime with the final outcome of 4:3 (OT) – here you will win the over 5,5 bet.

The post Mixed rules in ice hockey, how to place safe surebets? appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Sports Arbitrage Software, Alert Service, Arbitrage Betting.

Let us quote the definition of standard sports arbitrage from Wikipedia first:

Betting arbitrage, surebets, sports arbitraging is a particular case of arbitrage arising on betting markets due to either bookmakers’ different opinions on event outcomes. When conditions allow, by placing one bet per each outcome with different betting companies, the bettor can make a profit regardless of the outcome. In the bettors’ slang an arbitrage is often referred to as an arb; people who use arbitrage are called arbersWikipedia

Now the live-arbitrage might be described just as a standard one with only one slight difference, bets need to be placed at live markets, so the games must be in progress at the time the bets are placed.

Live arbing is often considered the “next level” or the “next stage” for an evolving arber. Therefore let’s summarize some characteristics and highlight biggest differences between pre-live and live arbing:

And the few words of commentary to the table above: Live-arbing activity certainly has gained a lot of interest over time, but the competition level, in comparison to the pre-live markets is still very limited. This is mainly because of the complexity of placing live arbs.

This leaves an open field for an intermediate to highly experienced arbers and this field certainly requests to be explored.

Pro-arbers will mainly benefit from delayed limitation – keep in mind that currently around 80% of betting volume happens on the live markets, which accounts for the fact, that these markets are most profitable for the bookmakers. That’s why bookies tend to simplify the message and assume the damage done by arbers is exclusively (historically) on pre-live markets. Also, tracking arbitrage action on live markets is much more problematic owing to the nature of the live-arbitrage itself and the ongoing, rapidly changing action in the sports betting event of interest.

In the next articles we will go through the most potent live-arbitrage events and sports, trying to optimize our live-arbing efforts. We will also talk about the sequence of placing arbs (over/unders/handicaps), think of how to avoid the “danger zone” issue and try to select best services for live-betting activity, so stay with us.

The post The idea of live arbitrage appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Free Sports Arbitrage Software, Free Alert Service | In-Play Surebets | Skrill | Pinnacle Sports | SBObet | Bonus.

Let’s assume that it is Saturday afternoon and you, sitting comfortable before your beloved PC can track just 2-3 games live and you look for the arbs yourself. Which ones you should choose to make this Saturday activity most efficient? Is there a trick that you need to know to improve live-arbing results?

Today we will show you one and suggest you some events that have a lot more potential of producing arbitrage opportunities compared to the other ones.

Generally we have two families of bookmakers. The Asians (SBObet, 12bet, Dafabet, Singbet etc + Pinnacle Sports) and The Others.

All of the services belonging to the Asian group are similar one to the other in defining team’s chances live, but differ from the books from the Other group. Anyway, if the game goes in a predictable way, all of the services will keep similar attitude when it goes to estimating chances -> resulting in defining odds and generally this will mean low arbitrage count. RED CARD will affect this pattern. Frequently red card will disturb the live-betting algorithms the bookies from “The Other” group uses and they will no longer be accurate. This will result in plenty of arbitrages. If another RED CARD is issued, the mess will be even greater. Look for these events.

Another time, the automated live-algorithms “The Other” group bookmakers use will not withstand if the game progress is totally weird. Imagine Barcelona plays home against Granada and loses two goals in first quarter of a game and more than that, Messi gets a red card. This is what you are looking for being an live-arber!

This rule apply to football, but even more to basketball and handball, preferably to the handicap markets. “The Other” group bookies tend to undervalue handicaps for favorites and overvalue handicaps for underdogs. We say they take position in the game… the idea is though simple. Look at the example below:

Again Barcelona playing a game home against Granada and Messi is in top shit form:

No discussion, the accurate odds coming from the Asian bookie. These guys are professionals and cannot afford to do shitty things. The Other bookie, that is targeting mostly recreational players (and limited pro ones already) assumes that 90% of gamblers will anyway exploit -2.5 Barcelona line, even though the odd is just 1.60. That is why they lower the odd for this resolution.

So these are opportunities you are looking for. This works the same way in handball and basket.

In the next article we will check which sports generate most live-arbitrage opportunities, so stay with us.

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Following the previous article, where we described “HOT” events your intuition perhaps is also telling you that certain sports are more profound of arbitrage opportunities than the other ones. Here is what one needs to take into account when investigating which sport is best. Live betting sports might be very profitable, when arbing.

1. Coverage of the certain sport discipline

Perhaps field hockey has a lot of potential for arbers, but it is hard to find out, since almost no bookmaker offers live-betting for it, and even if one does, the amount of markers is very limited. That is why the most common sports are per se the first and major target. These are : soccer, basketball and tennis.

2. Diversity of betting markets for a discipline of interest

The easy equation goes like this: the more the markets, the more the odds. The more the odds, the higher the probability one will find some arbs. That is why one should not expect a lot of action when secondary sports like volleyball or snooker are involved. Also secondary basketball, tennis or football events with just one Asian handicap or over/under line will not produce lots of arbs. The general rule is looking for a big, very big events in soccer, tennis and basketball.

3. Handball, basketball and tennis

Sometimes these three abovementioned disciplines are undervalued by arbers who concentrate exclusively on exploring live-soccer events. This is not necessarily the best move, since especially when big tournaments are involved – handball, basketball and tennis can produce dozens of live arbitrage opportunities, in particular on Asian handicaps and under/over markets.

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Whereas in pre-live arbitrage sequence of placing bets is pretty much irrelevant, with just one, general basic rule so to place soft bookies bets first and cover with Asians later on, the live-arbitrage field is more complicated. Here we will present some basic rules, how to act in order to optimize live arbing.

First we need to highlight the all-important difference between live-betting at Soft bookies (Unibet and others) and Asians (SBObet, Pinnacle Sports, others). Soft bookies have so called “acceptance delay – normally 5-10 seconds”. This means, that once you place the bet, the timer starts and if nothing happens within this time frame (no odds change, no goal) the bet gets fully accepted.

Asian bookies live-bets acceptance is based on so called “the danger zone rule”. The idea is, that your bet, upon being placed will get fully accepted if the “current” danger zone gets cleared. It will, though be voided if there is a goal or red card resulting from the danger zone of interest. This VITAL difference may work both on your favor, but also may cost you a lot of money if used in a wrong way.

Perhaps an example of this a bit complicated issue will explain best what is a difference all about:

Let us imagine Barcelona is playing home against Valencia. The score is 1:1 and the game is ending with 85’ at the clock. Barcelona is about to have a corner. The odds for over/under are presented below:

Correct solution: Start betting Over 2,5 at Unibet, cover with an under bet at SBObet.

You fire your 100 EUR bet (over 2.5 @ 2.02) at Unibet, and after 5 seconds the bet is placed and accepted. Now you cover this bet at SBObet (under 2.5 @ 2.02) and it goes into “the danger zone”, so it is conditionally-accepted (will be fully accepted if no goal or red card is issued within the current danger zone). Now if the current danger zone results with a goal you will have your Unibet bet won (+102 EUR) and your SBObet voided.

Result: +102 EUR, no risk included.

Now let’s imagine the same game, but the different situation with the odds being:

Correct solution 1: Start betting Over 2,5 with SBObet, wait until it is accepted and cover with an under 2,5 bet at Unibet.

This is the only way you are not risking much money. If you would start betting from an under 2.5 bet at Unibet and there is a goal coming from the current “Danger zone” you would lost considerable amount of money (Unibet under 2.5 bet would be lost and SBObet over 2.5 bet would be voided). If you wait for the SBObet over 2.5 bet to get it fully accepted you are in no-risk position.

Correct solution 2: No bet

In this case the percentage of an arb (1%) might be not profitable enough to start betting such an arb. It is likely that throughout the time SBObet will fully accept your over 2.5 bet @ 2.02 (until the current danger zone cleares) Unibet will lower the odds for under 2.5 (@ 2.02 initially) which woud close the arb opportunity and would force you to cover the arb with negative profit.

The post Live arbing sequence – over or under bet first? appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Free Sports Arbitrage Software, Free Alert Service | In-Play Surebets | Skrill | Pinnacle Sports | SBObet | Bonus.

Successful in-play arbitrage betting requires careful selection of bookmaker services. In this summary we will suggest and review two – in our eyes – vital bookmakers, where one must open an account in order to reasonably do live sports arbitrage.

1st place: SBObet

There are so many reasons why this leading Asian bookmaker got our absolute recommendation, that we decided to list most important of them below:

• Massive first deposit bonus offer (so rare nowadays for sports betting)
• Solid, reputable bookmaker offering rapid fast and free deposits and withdrawals via Skrill
• Huge live-betting offer with multiple sports covered
• Plenty of live-betting markets for live-betting events
• Outstanding live odds for crucial leagues and events
• Asian view available – vital for arbing live
• Smart players and arbers welcomed
• Winning accounts are NOT limited
• Helpful customer service
• Developing service

Please have a look at the screen below that represents SBObet Asian view odds:

Let us underline that an Asian View option (present in both SBObet and Pinnacle Sports) is essential for effective in-play arbing. It allows an arber to quickly find odds of interest and smoothly navigate between events, thanks to the fact that all live-odds and events are gathered on a single webpage.

2nd place: Pinnacle Sports

Not that far behind SBObet is another great bookmaker – Pinnacle Sports. Their advantages are very similar to the ones of the leader:

• Solid, reputable bookmaker offering INSTANT deposits and withdrawals via Skrill. All deposits and first withdrawal of a calendar month are free of charge
• Decent live-betting offer with multiple sports covered
• Plenty of live-betting markets for live-betting events
• Outstanding live odds for crucial leagues and events
• Asian view available – vital for arbing live
• Smart players and arbers welcomed
• Winning accounts are NOT limited
• Helpful customer service, available though only via e-mail
• Developing service

Please have a look at the screen below that represents Pinnacle Sports Asian view odds:

As you can see there is not that much difference between both services with SBObet being just slightly ahead. Nevertheless both bookmakers are a MUST choice for every successful arber.

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Live arbitrage trading is commonly perceived as a next (and more difficult) step ahead of typical pre-live trading. Consequently it is much more difficult to come up with a decent alert service for trading in-play, compared to the one that works for pre-match markets. In our eyes OddStorm.com (in-play arbitrage software) seems to be currently the sole decent option that covers needs of live-betting arbers.

The policy of the service that lies behind usefulness of the service:

• OddStorm collects odds from bookmakers on its own. That way OddStorm does not depend on third parties, which commonly provide delayed odds and missing tournaments
• OddStorm does not rely on bookmakers XML feeds, which may be highly delayed, especially during the weekends
• OddStorm generates unique and cross-market soccer surebets. The OddStorm power is in fast detection, generation, presentation and customization

Secondary features of the OddStorm livebetting application include:

• Refresh interval is 1 second! That is why User shall never miss a trend
• Right-click on arbitrage list show filter opportunities for clicked match
• Ability to observe odd price trending of an arbitrage outcome
• Presence of inbuilt powerful calculator

Useful filters:

• Filter match for 1, 2, 5 minutes (ex, when goal scored)
• Filter odd price
• By arbitrage outcome count. Surebet list can be set to show surebets containing 2 outcomes (legs)
• Show only events which are on Half Time break. No risk of goal scored during the arbitrage trading time
• Current score is draw
• Minutes till Half Time break or Finish are less than given minutes
• Arbitrage percentage filter can be set to custom values from 0-100%
• Filter if odds are lower than a value. This may prevent cases when you must stake big amounts on an lower price outcome in order to cover the arbitrage

Tips:

• Many users filter the surebets between 1-10% in order to avoid big “fake” arbs
• Many users prefer to play only simplest two leg arbs (using filters)
• Many users avoid to place arbs when an event is about to finish, as in case of goals scored the event will be well out from the bookmakers. Filter by minutes till break is useful in such cases
• Try simple arbs with lower stakes until you get some experience in live-arbing
• Think of useful filter to show only events which are current in a draw. (in order to minimize risk of wrong surebets due to goal mismatch, which may appear)
• Another hint is to use filter to show only events which are on halftime break. (in order to minimize risk of goal scored during placement of an arbitrage)
• Many users say that bwin, William hill, bet365, Ladbrokes and unibet are among best-covered services

The post OddStorm – In-play arbitrage software appeared first on Surebet Monitor - Free Sports Arbitrage Software, Free Alert Service | In-Play Surebets | Skrill | Pinnacle Sports | SBObet | Bonus.

Asian handicaps in play lines produce multiple arbitrage opportunities. The discrepancy of odds display between bookies might result in wrong surebet placement.

The idea of this article originates from an e-mail we got recently. Our subscriber, who recently switched into in-play arbitrage, sent us an example of sky-high % arbitrage between Pinnacle Sports and Unibet, placed live. He considered that bet a miracle, however the sad fact was that it was in fact a reverse middle bet, with potential to lose both legs of it. The mistake resulted from wrong understanding of asian handicaps odds display for live markets.

Let us clarify this subject:

There are two groups of bookmakers: Soft ones and “Asian” ones. The soft ones will display asian handicap lines related to the score before the start of the game [0-0], unrelated to the current score.

On the other hand “Asian” bookmakers will display asian handicap odds based on the CURRENT score of the game. In the other words they will take your asian handicap bet on the REMAINING part of the game.

We hope this article helps and clarifies this issue.

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Sports arbitrage trading in-play might be dangerous when betting late minutes of the game. Check out why live betting is dangerous.

Sports arbitrage in-play is by all means more demanding (though, profitable) compared to placing surebets pre-match. Unfortunately placing surebets near the end of the game might become problematic.

This is because most of the bookmakers will close their lines near the end of a given sport contest. Sometimes it will happen just three minutes before the end of the scheduled time of the game, sometimes 5, sometimes 8, there is no definite time point for that. This will vary between matches and scores.

You might go into the trouble when you successfully place one leg of your in-play surebet at bookie 1 and before placing the other leg at bookie 2 the market will be closed for good. You will be left alone with an unbalanced exposure at bookie 1 with the best option to cross your fingers for the right outcome of the match (and the second best would be to bet another leg at the bookie 1, thus losing the margin value).

That is why to avoid such issues we recommend you NOT to place arbitrage bets after the 86th minute when it goes to soccer games full-time markets or 40th minute for half-time bets respectively.

This rule applies also to other sports, mainly ice-hockey, basketball and handball.

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Sports arbitrage activity reached its plateau long ago due to a number of reasons including great competition, increased limitation and general bookmaker’s hunting attitude towards arbers. Countermeasure to this is certainly live-arbitrage betting. This article explores if arbing secondary markets constitutes as one another current sports-arbitrage real and profitable option.

Secondary markets – what is that?

Whereas primary markets are these most popular betting markets and types (over/under, asian handicap markets, 1X2 markets) we might define secondary markets as:

• Corners markets (total corners, corners handicaps, 1X2 in corners, corners market for 1st half, first corner markets)
• Secondary over/under lines (e.g over/under 0.5, 1.5, 3.5, 4.5, 5.5, etc)
• Secondary handicap markets (e.g handicap -2.5, -3.5 etc)
• Bookings markets (yellow/red cards count, handicap in cards)
• Penalty taken markets
• First/last goalscorer
• Team to advance
• Correct score markets

And alike.

Secondary markets – why this is more profitable compared to primary markets when arbing?

Most importantly secondary markets are not covered by most of the alert services (if not by all of them). The reason for that is simple – these markets are not commonly covered by most of bookmakers and they are sort of unique (offered only for games during major competitions), thus again alert services do not include them in the coverage. Theoretically it would be possible but would require too much work. Lack of this coverage means for you that the lines hold for longer time – one needs to spot the line and exploit it manually. In practice not many people do that.

Secondary markets – suggested bookmakers

• Pinnacle Sports propositions (present during major events)
• Bet365
• GoBetGo
• SBObet

And many others – explore yourself and find your niche!

Arbitrage betting is very often called a risk free activity where you can win a lot of money. Of course, experienced arbers know that’s not real and newbies often discover risks the hard way. The truth is that arbitrage is an activity with some risks that must be carefully handled. Although there is a lot written about this subject, this article provides a unique place to summarize most common risks and it’s a must read for people starting arbing.

Some risks arise before placing bets, other can occur during the betting process and other will happen after bets were placed, but it’s important to know that most risks can be prevented if using a systematic approach.

Common risks and mistakes

In the following tables we will show an extensive list of risk situations and provide an example for each one. We have classified risks by their possible cause as follows:

• User error: This risk happens because the user makes a mistake when placing bets. You should be able to avoid these problems in all cases.

• Arbitrage inherent risk: This risk happens because of the arbing process. You should be able to avoid most of these problems and only be hit on very exceptional situations. In case you suffer this risk, you should learn to take actions to limit damage.

User errors

Arbitrage inherent errors

Advice

In order to prevent this problems, there are a few basic steps that you should consider. If you are starting arbing you will find it difficult and each surebet could take you too much time to place. After you get practice you will do all these checks within seconds. Experienced arbers do not even need to think about this and prevent these risks automatically.

• Be sure you have set the same time zone on all your bookmakers, so that all events are shown at the correct time.

• Be sure you use the same currency on all bookmakers (except a few exceptions where this is not possible).

• Try to remember bookmaker rules for some specific sports (tennis, ice hockey and baseball) at least for bookmakers you use most.

• Check you are betting on the same match on all legs. The sport, competition, team names, date and time must be the same.

• Check you are betting on the same market (unless it is a cross market bet).

• Check bookmakers rules are the same. Sometimes different rules are not a problem, and sometimes can work in your favour (check this article).

• Check your stake calculation and confirm you have balance on all bookies.

• Consider the order to place bets, taking into account limits, confirmations, odds, etc. In general, you should place the bet in the soft bookmaker first.